Climate Change and Threats and Opportunities in Louisiana 

Submitted to the Piney Woods Journal as the second of a three-paart series on climate change

My last PWJ article was a brief overview on the critical issue of climate change.  I promised to discuss next which sectors in our state economy will be affected more in the next few decades by climate change and by efforts to combat its more devastating impacts.  There are rapidly developing threats and some opportunities, as well, for these sectors of Louisiana’s economy.  

The National Climate Assessment report for 2018 (Chapter 29) revealed that there were fewer greenhouse gas emission mitigation activities at the state and local levels in Louisiana than in most other states.  That is unfortunate since this report warns of exceptional risks of negative impacts in the Southeast and Gulf states, to cities such as New Orleans, and for low-lying, coastal areas. An important sector in our state’s economy, tourism and recreation, is largely dependent on our natural environment and will be much more negatively than positively impacted by anticipated climate change. 

  

Oil and gas

The USA, propelled by the shale boom, will account for almost two-thirds of the world’s new oil and natural gas output in the decade ahead, according to estimates by the consulting firm, Rystad Energy. This projected boom in American oil and gas production, with huge potentials for states such as Louisiana, should be accompanied by improvements in the reduction of industry-wide methane and greenhouse gas leakages.  

Methane leakage occurs not only in oil and gas drilling and production, but also in storage, processing, distribution, and transportation activities. There have certainly been calls by industry critics for tighter emission regulations, especially in curtailing practices such as venting and flaring from natural gas operations.  Energy companies have long argued that regulations for emission testing are costly and burdensome, and that their own  leakage detection and self-policing efforts are effective.  Even given much increased focus on climate change, it is difficult to imagine that state involvement in the oil and gas industry will be reduced that much in the short term.  We can expect that the industry will likely be subjected to closer regulatory scrutiny and will see more of its income directed by federal and state mandates to greenhouse gas mitigation efforts. The billions of dollars of annual government subsidies that the oil and gas industry have long received from national and state sources, as well as their tax exemptions and drilling incentives, will be subject to increasing scrutiny and question.  National policies related to climate change will push investments and incentives toward more renewable energy sources.    

Forestry and Agriculture

Louisiana forests cover 48% of the state's land area, and forestry is the second largest manufacturing employer in the state, according to the Louisiana Forestry Association.  The loss of forest lands contributes significantly to increasing amounts of carbon dioxide that are released into our atmosphere.  Forest restoration is an essential part of any overall approach to decreasing carbon dioxide release levels.  Forest restoration proposals include increasing forest lands that are closed to logging, planting many more trees on lands that were previously wooded, shifts from the dominant monoculture of our state forest lands to forests having a more diverse mix of trees, and improving forest cultivation and management methods to enhance carbon storage capacity. More environmentally-friendly, if more costly, timber harvesting alternatives have long existed and continue to be advocated by critics. Scientists in the private and public sectors are developing better ways to analyze and select potential reforestation sites that consider cultural/social, ecological and economic factors.  Forestry issues and practices have been strongly connected recently to overall crop cultivation and management reforms in the agricultural sector.   

Agriculture is a major force in our state’s economy that generates multibillions of dollars of export income, but its future has its share of uncertainties and threats.  Declines in agricultural crop yields and quality, increasing threats to livestock health, and more extreme weather events are expected to threaten rural livelihoods, sustainable food security, and price stability, according to the 2018 National Climate Assessment Report.  Agriculture is often criticized for its overreliance on a factory farming model and for unsustainable environmental practices.  Among many criticisms are those involving heavily-fertilized and chemically-sprayed commodity crops that contribute to greenhouse gas emission.   

Advocates for improved agricultural responses to climate threats often stress the need for alternative land-use management systems that better integrate timber, forage and livestock operations.  Some call for practices such as forest farming, where certain crops are grown under tree canopies, and tree intercropping with intermingling areas of trees and crops in order to increase the carbon content of the soil and productivity of the land. More managed livestock grazing over rotating pastures and the development of windbreaks to reduce erosion and to improve habitat for birds and pollinators are part of these recommendations. Improvements and reforms in farmland irrigation approaches are sought, so that more precise and timely amounts of water are delivered to crops.  Regenerative agricultural alternatives include multiple crop rotations, very limited or no tillage, diverse cover crops chosen to replenish the soil, better nutrient management techniques, in-farm fertility with very limited or no external fertilizer applications, and very limited or no use of industrial pesticides and herbicides.  California has been one state leader in introducing a program in 2017 with funding incentives for farmers who adopt some of these regenerative farming practices. 

Choice of perennial bioenergy crops, rather than annual crops such as corn, also can lead over time to significant reductions in carbon emissions. Other crop choices also reduce these emissions. Industrial hemp production has been advocated and tested, as a substitute or replacement for crops such as cotton that have much higher chemical cultivation needs and more carbon dioxide impact. Bamboo farming is a recent trend in the Southeast.  The carbon sequestration value of bamboo relative to almost any other plant, its potential even on degraded land and poor soils, and its expanding commercial demand for a variety of building materials are being touted.  Some alternative cash crops can have regulatory complications, such as those delaying more hemp cultivation in this state, as well as much less certain startup risks and costs.  Agriculture research becomes critical in preparing the way for those venturing into new crops and markets.  

Rice farming, so important in Arkansas and Louisiana, has generated a lot of international attention related to methane emissions. Methane emissions occur with the decomposition of crop residues and fertilizers in flooded rice cultivation. One alternative suggested has been less reliance on flooded rice cultivation and more upland, or row crop, rice production.  More efficient delivery of water and nutrients to rice at appropriate times, or at least mid-season drainage, as well as alternative tillage or seeding techniques that disturb less the soil layers have also been advised. Cultivation of upland or row rice has started recently to attract more farmers in northeast Louisiana for reasons other than concern for methane emission.  Several LSU Ag Center scientists are currently working on studies to try to establish the extent of reductions in methane and nitrous oxide emissions for upland rice production versus several different alternatives for flooded cultivation.    

 

New Directions in Louisiana?

The imposition of federal carbon pricing/taxes or emission credit trading schemes is a future possibility, and a present reality in many other countries. Their impact on planning and operations in the agriculture and the oil and gas industry in Louisiana would be enormous.  The proposed creation of a fully-empowered federal climate change agency might lead to these and other responses to climate change. Major Democratic Presidential candidates are proposing competing trillions-of-dollars climate change programs.    Regardless of the outcome of the 2020 election, we can certainly expect much higher funding levels for green infrastructure investments and incentives in the next decade. 

Many technologies or methods for greatly reducing greenhouse gases have already been investigated and tested by scientists.  The good news is that estimates of long-term savings of climate-related costs from almost all of these abatement approaches are much higher than their investment costs. The challenge, though, is fostering better education and recognition concerning climate change and the huge societal costs for inaction or delay in practical responses.  

Oil and gas, forest products, and agriculture are mature and powerful forces in this state.  Vested interests in status quo practices and greater concern for other, shorter-term industry priorities have limited the speed and extent of greenhouse gas mitigation investments and reforms.  These attitudes, however, will continue to shift in the next decade as private and public sector recognition of harmful effects of climate change greatly increases. The question is how soon and how significant these shifting attitudes and actual practices will occur and will affect most Louisiana businesses and residents.